Does Consumer Spending Drive Earnings Growth?

  • S&P Global's current estimates show earnings are growing far above the long-term exponential growth trend from 1936. With regularity, earnings tend to repeatedly revert to the long-term trend due to economic recessions, financial crises, or other events that crimp economic activity. Given the correlation between PCE and forward earnings, and PCE and consumer sentiment, it should be unsurprising that there is a decent correlation between consumer sentiment and forward earnings.