USHY: We Were Maybe Wrong About Inflation

  • More neutral on inflation risks given recent moderate CPI amid encouraging jobs data. USHY remains sensitive to overall YTM changes with 3-year duration, but the reduced evidence of stagflation reduces the inflation and credit spread pressure. Tariff risks persist, with reciprocal tariffs still not out of the picture, but we do point to moderating data such as low export exposure of the US economy.