U.S.-China Trade War: Implications And Market Outlook For 2025

  • Prolonged Negotiations: U.S.-China trade talks may extend months to years, with a 78% chance by the 90-day deadline (Polymarket, as of 2025, May 14th). Market Risks: In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. stock market could face multiple drawdowns, potentially mirroring the 8–12% Nasdaq 100 declines seen in 2018–2019.