Nebius Q1 Preview: All About ARR

  • Nebius Group N.V. is expected to report $57.7M in Q1 revenue, up 52% sequentially from $37.9M in Q4 2024. Nebius's $220M March ARR represents contracted run-rate revenue; applying a 60–70% recognition rate implies $525M–$613M in 2025 revenue, validating the $520.5M guidance. NBIS Q1 revenue is likely in the $55M–$65M range, as GAAP revenue trails ARR during early ramp. ARR remains the best forward indicator of monetization velocity.