Trump Wants Talks With China - Why The Current Rally Is Likely Temporary

  • Trump's announcement of lower tariffs on China may push markets up in the short term, but it weakens his negotiation position, likely leading to failed trade talks. Rising credit default swap premiums and a recently inverted yield curve signal significant economic concerns, indicating a potential recession. High valuations of SPY and QQQ, coupled with structural economic issues, skew expected returns to the downside.