TIP: Trump Feud With Federal Reserve May Collapse Bond Market

  • I'm slightly bullish on TIP for the rest of 2025, as Fed policy shifts should lower real rates and reduce liquidity impacts of Fed tightening. TIP benefits from dovish Fed moves, but rising inflation expectations and bank and Treasury liquidity strains could undermine stability beyond 2025. A surge in Treasury issuance and low bank liquidity may force the Fed to resume quantitative easing, boosting TIP but destabilizing the dollar and promoting higher long-term inflation.