State Economies that Will Lose the Most Under Trump Deportations

  • Donald Trump was elected to office for a second term on a platform centered, in no small part, around deportations of undocumented migrants living in the United States. While the Trump administration has so far failed to keep pace with its stated goal of deporting one million immigrants per year, these shortcomings have not been for lack of trying—as the president continues to implement extraordinary measures to remove foreign nationals who crossed into the U.S. illegally. Key Points Undocumented migrants make up nearly 5% of the American labor force, and mass expulsion of these workers, while controversial, has been a central component of President Trump’s immigration policies. According to multiple studies, forced removal of the more than 8.2 million undocumented workers in the United States could have devastating economic consequences, particularly in certain states. Working with a financial advisor can help individuals navigate ongoing political and economic uncertainty. Click here to get started now. During the first few months of his second term, Trump removed long-standing restrictions that barred immigration enforcement agents from arresting migrants in places like schools, hospitals, or churches. Trump has also implemented and increased daily arrest quotas for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials, expanded federal powers to conduct deportations while denying migrants access to legal defense, and pressured foreign governments to retrieve their citizens living illegally in the United States. (Here is a look at the Trump administration’s most and least popular policies so far.) Whether these or any additional future measures will be sufficient for the Trump administration to meet its ambitious immigration goals remains to be seen. But some of the economic implications of that success are easier to predict. According to a study conducted by the Pew Research Center, there are nearly 8.3 million undocumented migrants working in the United States, accounting for approximately 4.8% of the American labor force. The same study found that these workers tend to be highly concentrated in construction, farming, and services—industries that would be disproportionately impacted by the mass removal of undocumented migrants. Additionally, in certain parts of the country, local economies rely far more on unauthorized labor than the U.S. average. In these places, economic disruptions caused by deportations would likely be magnified. Using data from the Pew Research Center, 24/7 Wall St. identified the state economies that are most exposed to Trump administration deportations. States are ranked by the estimated number of undocumented workers as a share of their total labor force. Only the states where at least 1% of workers are undocumented were considered in this analysis. All data on undocumented migrants in this story are Pew estimates, current as of 2022. Supplemental data on median and average wages by state and occupation are 2024 estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Among the 46 states on this list, the number of undocumented migrant workers ranges from fewer than 5,000 to nearly 1.5 million—accounting for anywhere from 1.1% to 8.6% of a given state’s total labor force.(These are the Americans most likely to approve of the job Trump is doing as president so far.) In most states, unauthorized immigrant workers are largely concentrated in occupations in the agriculture, construction, or manufacturing industries. Notably, average annual wages for jobs in these and other fields employing large numbers of undocumented workers are often higher than the typical wage across all occupations in the state. It is important to note, however, that the legal status of undocumented migrants often means they are willing to work for wages that are well below average. These are the state economies that will lose the most under Trump deportations. Why It Matters President Trump’s increasingly aggressive approach to the deportation of undocumented migrants could have massive economic implications. Multiple studies, including one conducted by the Economic Policy Institute, found that mass deportations could result in a meaningful economic contraction, reducing wages and driving up unemployment rates among American workers. While the Trump administration maintains its migrant expulsion policies will have the opposite effect, the potential consequences of deportations remain particularly stark in states where undocumented workers make up large shares of the labor force. 46. Mississippi Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.1% (10,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $39,070 45. Ohio Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.5% (75,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $48,060 44. New Hampshire Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.5% (15,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Business services Average annual wage for business support services occupations: $52,210 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Information Average annual wage for information occupations: $112,770 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $52,610 43. Missouri Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.5% (45,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,390 42. Kentucky Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.6% (35,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $45,740 41. Wyoming Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.7% (<5,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Other services Average annual wage for other services occupations: $55,940 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Other services Average annual wage for other services occupations: $55,940 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $49,160 40. South Dakota Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.7% (5,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $45,620 39. North Dakota Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.7% (5,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Education/Health Average annual wage for educational services occupations: $67,700 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Other services Average annual wage for other services occupations: $55,940 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $50,320 38. Michigan Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.8% (90,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $48,300 37. Wisconsin Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.9% (65,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $48,930 36. Alabama Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 1.9% (40,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $43,830 35. Louisiana Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.0% (45,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $43,770 34. Minnesota Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.2% (70,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $53,810 33. South Carolina Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.4% (65,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $44,760 32. Pennsylvania Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.5% (150,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Education/Health Average annual wage for educational services occupations: $67,700 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $48,550 31. Indiana Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.5% (80,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,930 30. Alaska Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.6% (5,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $59,400 29. Nebraska Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.7% (35,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $47,990 28. Iowa Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.7% (35,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $47,670 27. Tennessee Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 2.8% (90,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,120 26. Idaho Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 3.2% (30,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,470 25. Arkansas Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 3.3% (50,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $41,020 24. Delaware Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 3.5% (25,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Business services Average annual wage for business support services occupations: $52,210 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Transport/Utilities Average annual wage for transportation/utilities occupations: $62,460/$101,800 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $51,030 23. Oklahoma Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 3.6% (65,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $43,950 22. Kansas Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 3.6% (55,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Mining Average annual wage for mining occupations: $79,490 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,850 21. New Mexico Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 3.7% (45,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $45,870 20. Colorado Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 3.8% (120,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $N/A 19. North Carolina Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 4.3% (220,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,950 18. Hawaii Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 4.3% (25,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Leisure/Hospitality Average annual wage for accommodation and food services occupations: $37,960 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $53,260 17. Oregon Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 4.4% (90,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $53,390 16. Virginia Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 4.5% (210,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $53,020 15. Utah Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 4.5% (75,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $48,600 14. Georgia Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 4.9% (250,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $47,020 13. Arizona Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 4.9% (190,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $48,810 12. New York Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 5.0% (500,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $58,560 11. Illinois Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 5.0% (300,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Manufacturing Average annual wage for manufacturing occupations: $66,820 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $50,000 10. Rhode Island Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 5.2% (25,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Business services Average annual wage for business support services occupations: $52,210 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $54,040 9. Connecticut Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 5.5% (100,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Education/Health Average annual wage for educational services occupations: $67,700 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $58,400 8. Washington Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 6.1% (220,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Business services Average annual wage for business support services occupations: $52,210 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $61,590 7. Massachusetts Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 6.4% (220,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Business services Average annual wage for business support services occupations: $52,210 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $62,270 6. Maryland Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 6.5% (200,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $58,050 5. California Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 7.2% (1,450,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $56,940 4. New Jersey Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 7.5% (325,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Business services Average annual wage for business support services occupations: $52,210 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $57,230 3. Florida Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 7.5% (625,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Agriculture Average annual wage for agricultural worker occupations: $37,920 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,860 2. Texas Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 8.1% (1,250,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $47,500 1. Nevada Unauthorized immigrants as a share of state labor force: 8.6% (150,000 unauthorized migrant workers) Industry with the most unauthorized migrant workers: Leisure/Hospitality Average annual wage for accommodation and food services occupations: $37,960 Industry where unauthorized migrants make up the largest share of labor force: Construction Average annual wage for construction laborer occupations: $52,130 Median annual wage across all occupations statewide: $46,440 The post State Economies that Will Lose the Most Under Trump Deportations appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..