Valero: California Refinery Shutdown Crisis May Spread Nationally (Upgrade)

  • Valero Energy Corporation's price has compressed since I last covered it, as investors have shifted toward a more realistic crack spread outlook. The crack spread has risen again following refinery shutdowns, continuing the post-2020 trend toward lower gasoline and diesel production capacity. Given that capital and skilled labor costs are rising nationally, while EV sales are high, refiners are reluctant to invest, potentially indicating accelerated capacity declines.