TLT: Staying Bullish After Its Latest Surge

  • We see the fiscal risk premium as being priced in and think the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF can tap into lucrative longer-term key rates. Our short-term forecast for the yield curve is bullish flattening, TLT ETF's effective duration of 15.68 means the ETF might benefit from such a scenario. The on-the-run coupon base is set quite high for 20-year+ Treasuries. Therefore, we see short-term distributions being sustained at decent levels.